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kyle engelsman
April 26th Market Update with Dan Rawitch
0:01 Hey everybody, Dan Rawitch here, happy hump day. So treasuries are actually behaving very well despite very, very strong durable goods.
0:13 And durable orders is something I've always watched carefully because. Is it's the big ticket items. These are the things that when people are really worried, that's where they pull in their wallets.
0:26 They're big ticket items. So that really did surprise me. Tomorrow. It's the bigger day tomorrow is GDP and that's going to just really decide this market.
0:41 Except after we get this number, the next day is even more important, which is personal income, personal spending and PCE prices huge.
0:50 So probably going to stay in a fairly tight range. Until we get through tomorrow and the next day, but tomorrow you could see some really wild swings, depending on where GDP comes in.
1:05 The consensus is 2%. So if you come in, you know, less than that, I think you could see. So the consensus is 3%.
1:15 So if you come in, you know, less than that, you know, less than that, you know, less than that. So I'm talking about very psychological, very important, and we broke below it.
1:22 And once we broke below that, we talked about this 3.45 Fibonacci level being really important. And so far it is staying below that Fib level, which means that there's a fairly decent probability.
1:35 That it gets down and tests the low of 3.25. For our system, we do have a cell signal, 82% bearish.
1:45 And the only thing we would wait for is it to clear this dot. So below 3, 3, 6, you could really see this thing.
1:55 And then, MBS is, you know, fairly tight range. It did get as high as 101. And that's an iron ceiling here.
2:04 Has been many, many times. Really critical level. So I'm not surprised we failed there. And I believe, and I think I said that we would probably stay in a tight range between 100 dot 50 and 101.
2:20 And that's going to happen. And that forms this pennant, which will always not all. We'll often see these pennants ahead of really big news days because the market is trying to decide what to do.
2:33 And so it'll tend to come right up the middle on these things and then not pick a direction until after the news.
2:43 OCD wants me to draw this differently. Something like that. There you go. All right. So that's it. I would just kind of be cautious here, although I don't think too much more is going to happen tomorrow.
2:56 Just watch this kind of pennant formation. If it falls below par 50. Could be a problem. All right, guys, that's all I've got.
3:04 Take care. Bye.
Thought of the day
When we worry about what others think of us, we surrender our power to them. Be respectful and compassionate but stop worrying about other people's opinions. True strength comes from inner confidence.
0:13 And durable orders is something I've always watched carefully because. Is it's the big ticket items. These are the things that when people are really worried, that's where they pull in their wallets.
0:26 They're big ticket items. So that really did surprise me. Tomorrow. It's the bigger day tomorrow is GDP and that's going to just really decide this market.
0:41 Except after we get this number, the next day is even more important, which is personal income, personal spending and PCE prices huge.
0:50 So probably going to stay in a fairly tight range. Until we get through tomorrow and the next day, but tomorrow you could see some really wild swings, depending on where GDP comes in.
1:05 The consensus is 2%. So if you come in, you know, less than that, I think you could see. So the consensus is 3%.
1:15 So if you come in, you know, less than that, you know, less than that, you know, less than that. So I'm talking about very psychological, very important, and we broke below it.
1:22 And once we broke below that, we talked about this 3.45 Fibonacci level being really important. And so far it is staying below that Fib level, which means that there's a fairly decent probability.
1:35 That it gets down and tests the low of 3.25. For our system, we do have a cell signal, 82% bearish.
1:45 And the only thing we would wait for is it to clear this dot. So below 3, 3, 6, you could really see this thing.
1:55 And then, MBS is, you know, fairly tight range. It did get as high as 101. And that's an iron ceiling here.
2:04 Has been many, many times. Really critical level. So I'm not surprised we failed there. And I believe, and I think I said that we would probably stay in a tight range between 100 dot 50 and 101.
2:20 And that's going to happen. And that forms this pennant, which will always not all. We'll often see these pennants ahead of really big news days because the market is trying to decide what to do.
2:33 And so it'll tend to come right up the middle on these things and then not pick a direction until after the news.
2:43 OCD wants me to draw this differently. Something like that. There you go. All right. So that's it. I would just kind of be cautious here, although I don't think too much more is going to happen tomorrow.
2:56 Just watch this kind of pennant formation. If it falls below par 50. Could be a problem. All right, guys, that's all I've got.
3:04 Take care. Bye.
Thought of the day
When we worry about what others think of us, we surrender our power to them. Be respectful and compassionate but stop worrying about other people's opinions. True strength comes from inner confidence.